Speak the language.

A market structure shift — the first higher-high after a downtrend, or first lower-low after an uptrend. Signals that the side in control has flipped before price fully reverses.

The live win-probability or money-line trend breaks its prior pattern: the team that was bleeding probability all quarter prints its first meaningful higher-high, or the favorite that was grinding upward suddenly carves out a lower-low. The score may not reflect it yet, but the run, the pace, and the line are telling you control just changed hands. Bet the side that just took the structure.

Whether your bet's price was better than the final price the market closed at. The single best long-term predictor of profitability.

If you bet LAL -2 (-110) and the line closes LAL -3 (-110), you got +1 point of CLV. Bettors who consistently beat the close win long-term, even if the individual bet loses.

Splitting a position into multiple smaller entries over time instead of betting full size at once. Reduces the cost of being early.

Instead of slamming your full unit on LAL ML at -120, you bet 1/3 unit at -120, 1/3 at -110 if it drifts, and 1/3 at +100 if the game goes against you early. Your blended price is better than any single ticket and you survive bad variance.

Your model's probability of winning minus the market's implied probability. Positive = the market is paying you more than the outcome is worth.

If your model says LAL wins 55% of the time and the consensus ML of -110 implies 52.4%, your edge is +2.6%. Over hundreds of bets, that 2.6% is the entire game. Edge under 2% gets eaten by vig and variance — don't bet it.

A price imbalance left behind when the market moves so fast that a zone of orders is skipped. Traders watch for price to return and 'fill' it.

When a live line moves violently after a single play (a dunk, a home run, an injury) the books often overshoot. The 'gap' between where the line is now and where the model says it should be is the FVG. Smart money fades the overreaction and waits for the line to come back.

Taking the opposite side of an open position to lock in some profit (or cap a loss) regardless of outcome.

You took LAL +6 pre-game at +100. Now LAL is up 4 in Q4 and the live spread is BOS -1.5 (+105). Bet a fraction of your original stake on BOS -1.5 — you've now locked in a guaranteed profit and capped variance for the final 6 minutes.

The win probability baked into a price by the market, before vig adjustment.

Convert American odds to a percentage. -150 means the market thinks this side wins ~60% of the time. Your only job as a bettor is to find spots where your honest probability is higher than the implied.

A self-reinforcing chain of forced exits — one side's stop-outs trigger more stop-outs, and price slides far past fair value before anyone steps in to buy.

Late-game one-click cash-outs and book hedge dumps create the same effect on a live line. A favorite gives up a quick run; thousands of in-app cash-out tickets fire at once, the book hedges by shading the live line further against that side, which trips more cash-outs. The line overshoots fair value by a full point or two before a sharp steps in to fade. The 'cascade' is the overshoot — and it's where the best contrarian price of the night usually lives.

How much volume a market can absorb before the price moves against you.

NBA/MLB sides on regulated US books have deep liquidity — you can usually get $1K down without moving the line. Live player props and obscure markets have thin liquidity — your bet itself moves the price. Bet small in thin markets.

The line moves the OPPOSITE direction of the public's bets. A classic sharp-money signal.

If 75% of public tickets are on LAL but the line drifts FROM LAL -3 TO LAL -2.5, it means the few sharp bets on BOS are bigger than all the small public LAL tickets combined. Follow the line, not the crowd.

The precise moment an asset is contractually 'delivered' — the point at which all uncertainty resolves and the position settles.

The exact micro-event your bet hinges on. Not 'will LAL win' (broad) but 'will LAL be ahead at the end of Q3' (specific delivery point). Live betting is a chain of delivery moments — knowing which one your edge depends on is the difference between a calculated bet and a vibe bet.

The book's commission, baked into the odds. The reason a coin-flip market pays -110 / -110 instead of +100 / +100.

If both sides of a market imply more than 100% combined, the overlap is the vig. Standard NBA/MLB ML markets carry 4-5% vig. Live markets often carry 8-12%. You need a bigger edge to beat live vig.